Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
